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Why did the tariff-growth correlation reverse after 1950?
In: NBER working paper series 9181
Closed jaguar, open dragon: comparing tariffs in Latin America and Asia before World War II
In: NBER working paper series 9401
A tariff-growth paradox?: Protection's impact the world around 1875 - 1997
In: NBER working paper series 8459
Amtsmißbrauch und Korruption: Strukturen in Deutschland Ost und West
In: Politikwissenschaft 69
SSRN
The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers
In: Oxford review of economic policy, Band 38, Heft 3, S. 449-486
ISSN: 1460-2121
AbstractInternational migrants who seek protection also participate in the economy. Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences. This paper places conservative bounds on those effects by critically reviewing the research literature. It goes beyond prior estimates by including ripple effects beyond the wages earned or taxes paid directly by migrants. The sharp reduction in US refugee admissions starting in 2017 costs the overall US economy today over $9.1 billion per year ($30,962 per missing refugee per year, on average) and costs public coffers at all levels of government over $2.0 billion per year ($6,844 per missing refugee per year, on average) net of public expenses. Large reductions in the presence of asylum seekers during the same period likewise carry ongoing costs in the billions of dollars per year. These estimates imply that barriers to migrants seeking protection, beyond humanitarian policy concerns, carry substantial economic costs.
The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 9464
SSRN
The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries
Many governments seek to reduce emigration from low-income countries by encouraging economic development there. A large literature, however, observes that average emigration rates are higher in countries with sustained increases in GDP per capita than in either chronically poor countries or established rich countries. This suggests an emigration life cycle in which average emigration first rises, then falls with development. But this hypothesis has not been tested with global datasets controlling for unobserved heterogeneity between countries. This paper finds that emigration rises on average as GDP per capita initially rises in poor countries, slowing after roughly US$5,000 at purchasing power parity, and reversing after roughly $10,000. Before this reversal, the within-country elasticity of rising emigration prevalence to rising GDP per capita is +0.35 to all destinations, and +0.74 to rich destinations. This relationship between emigration flows and economic growth is highly robust to country and time effects (fixed or random), specification (linear, log, nonparametric), emigration measure (stock or flow), country subsamples (rich destinations, large origins), and historical period (1960-2019 or 1850-1914). Decomposition of channels for this relationship highlight the joint importance of demographic transition, education investment, and structural change, but question a large role for transportation costs or policy barriers.
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Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity and Simpson's Paradox
In: Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 465
SSRN
Working paper
PatrickKingsleyThe New Odyssey: The Story of the Twenty‐First‐Century Refugee CrisisNew York: Liveright Publishing, 2017. 351 p. $26.95
In: Population and development review, Band 43, Heft 3, S. 565-568
ISSN: 1728-4457
The Effect of Occupational Visas on Native Employment: Evidence from Labor Supply to Farm Jobs in the Great Recession
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 10492
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Working paper
Testing for Repugnance in Economic Transactions: Evidence from Guest Work in the Gulf
In: Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 463
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Working paper
Violence, Development, and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions
In: Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 459
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Working paper